Scotland sees sharp rise in fraud cases despite drop in solvability

Between the financial years of 2014-15 and 2023-24, recorded fraud cases by Police Scotland surged dramatically, increasing from 6,913 to 16,624, which marks a staggering 140% rise in incidents.

Despite the alarming increase in reported fraud cases, the solvability rate has seen a drastic decline. A decade ago, the clear-up rate stood at 50.6%, but as of 2023-24, this figure has plummeted to just 16.5%.

A case is considered “cleared up” when law enforcement has gathered sufficient evidence to pursue criminal proceedings.

Among the factors contributing to this escalation, police officials have highlighted a substantial link to cybercrime, which has seen a notable rise in recent years. In the last year alone, 59% of all fraud crimes were classified as online, representing a three-fold increase since 2019. 

Moreover, in a troubling detail, the location of the perpetrator remains unknown in 49% of the cyber fraud cases analysed. Further complicating matters, 40% of these crimes were either suspected or confirmed to have been perpetrated from outside Scotland, while only 11% were confirmed to be operated from within the region.

Fraud constitutes about 15% of crimes of dishonesty, which is the most prevalent category of crime in Scotland, accounting for 37% of total criminal activity. 

In light of these developments, Chief Superintendent Conrad Trickett stated, “We outlined plans to establish a new cyber and fraud specialist division as part of our three-year business plan, published in September last year. The new division will tackle the growing demand of online crime, enhance our response to fraud in Scotland, and enable closer working with UK law enforcement and other agencies.”

Political reactions to the fraud surge have been voiced as well. 

Katy Clark, a Member of the Scottish Parliament from the Labour Party, commented, “Fraud can rob victims of their life savings while also destroying their ability to trust others, yet too often the perpetrators are allowed to repeat the same crime again and again. Yet even as police are struggling to solve fraud crimes, the number of cases is soaring. 

“The SNP must support police and anti-fraud organisations to combat this fraud epidemic and bring the ruthless individuals behind it to justice.”

In response to these concerning trends, a spokesman for the Scottish Government expressed sympathy for those impacted by fraud, which they acknowledged inflicts considerable harm on both individuals and businesses.

He pointed out that official statistics for 2023-24 show that a majority of recorded fraud is cyber-enabled. He highlighted that Police Scotland is in the process of establishing a dedicated cyber and fraud specialist division which will collaborate with UK law enforcement and partner agencies. 

The spokesman also noted a significant investment by the Scottish Government in police funding, amounting to a record £1.55bn this year. He reassured the public that Scotland continues to be a safe place to live, with crime rates at their lowest since 1974 and down 40% since the 2006-07 period.