LIVE - UK economy returned to growth in January

11:07 - Public investment needed to escape low-growth trap - National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Responding to the GDP figures, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said more public investment is needed to escape "low-growth" trap.

To escape the low-growth trap, structural changes are needed, such as an increase in public #investment, particularly in #infrastructure, #education and #health – which would also support growth in business investment

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Our full analysis here shortly⬇️t.co/k40Ii3Afea

— National Institute of Economic and Social Research (@NIESRorg)

To escape the low-growth trap, structural changes are needed, such as an increase in public #investment, particularly in #infrastructure, #education and #health – which would also support growth in business investment

2/2

Our full analysis here shortly⬇️https://t.co/k40Ii3Afea

— National Institute of Economic and Social Research (@NIESRorg) March 13, 2024

10:38 - Financial vulnerable renters need protections beyond proposed ban of "no-fault" evictions

Outside the GDP figures, debt advice charities StepChange, Money Advice Trust, Citizens Advice and Christians Against Poverty - alongside the Law Centres Network - have said they’ve written to Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove calling on him to priortise the Renters (Reform) Bill this parliamentary session. 

It comes as new polling reveals renters are twice as likely to be in problem debt as the average person, while 53% of private renters say they’ve found it difficult to keep up with bills and credit commitments in the past few months. 

As such, the charities are calling for a new Tenancy Support Programme - which would mirror the Pre-Action Protocol that exists for social tenants in rent arrears. This would introduce reasonable steps private landlords must take to support tenants in financial difficulty to sustain tenancies wherever possible. 

StepChange’s chief client officer Richard Lane said: “We’re currently experiencing a crisis of housing affordability which is leaving millions of private renters on the cusp of falling into problem debt simply because they do not have the income to cover exorbitant rents alongside rising essential costs.

“While a mortgage holder or social tenant has the security of knowing that their lender or housing provider will follow a process of engagement and support if they fall into a difficult spot with their finances, private renters are not afforded the same protections.

“At StepChange we see far too many financially vulnerable private renters who should be in socially rented homes, with living costs alone forcing them to resort to borrowing. It’s essential that they’re provided with dignity and security to stay in their homes should they be faced with a life shock that impacts their finances.”

Money Advice Trust’s acting deputy chief executive Jane Tully added: “Reform of the private rental sector is long overdue, and the Government’s intention to deliver greater security for tenants is welcome. Proposals as they currently stand, however, do not get close to providing the protections needed for private renters.

“At National Debtline we hear the lengths people go to protect their tenancy, including going without essentials in order to prioritise their rent. With rents rising and many household budgets at breaking point, it is only right that reasonable steps should be put in place to sustain tenancies.

“Changes to Ground 8A are needed now to reduce the threat of unnecessary evictions and to bring safeguards in this sector in-line with those granted to mortgage holders and social tenants.”

Even with the end of section 21, private renters are still at risk of automatic evictions. Today, alongside @CitizensAdvice, @Money_Advice, @CAPuk and @LawCentres, we’ve written to Michael Gove @LUHC, calling for better protections for private renters experiencing financial… pic.twitter.com/hVQGPfHJdK

— StepChange (@StepChange)

Even with the end of section 21, private renters are still at risk of automatic evictions. Today, alongside @CitizensAdvice, @Money_Advice, @CAPuk and @LawCentres, we’ve written to Michael Gove @LUHC, calling for better protections for private renters experiencing financial… pic.twitter.com/hVQGPfHJdK

— StepChange (@StepChange) March 13, 2024

With @CitizensAdvice, @StepChange, @CAPuk and @LawCentres, we’ve written to Michael Gove @LUHC, calling for better protections in the Renters (Reform) Bill for private renters experiencing financial difficulty.

👉t.co/xHXX9bCosW pic.twitter.com/GNgoCVZsCP

— Money Advice Trust (@Money_Advice)

With @CitizensAdvice, @StepChange, @CAPuk and @LawCentres, we’ve written to Michael Gove @LUHC, calling for better protections in the Renters (Reform) Bill for private renters experiencing financial difficulty.

👉https://t.co/xHXX9bCosW pic.twitter.com/GNgoCVZsCP

— Money Advice Trust (@Money_Advice) March 13, 2024

10:15 - Stagnation far from ending - Resolution Foundation 

The Resolution Foundation’s research director James Smith said - will Britain looks to be out of recession - its far from ending its period of "prolonged stagnation". 

Britain looks to be out of recession, but it is far from ending stagnation - @JamesSmithRF responds to the latest @ONS GDP data t.co/J32YpyjdzB pic.twitter.com/vWG5HJyLXS

— Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation)

Britain looks to be out of recession, but it is far from ending stagnation - @JamesSmithRF responds to the latest @ONS GDP data https://t.co/J32YpyjdzB pic.twitter.com/vWG5HJyLXS

— Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) March 13, 2024

Smith went on to explain that, while the return to growth in January was a positive, the three month figures show the economy is - as best - flatlining. 

Stepping back, the 3m-on-3m growth rate has also increased but at -0.1% remains in negative territory and weak historically. So, while it’s good that we’ve had return to growth in January, this is still an economy that is - at best - flatlining. pic.twitter.com/enf7SjLRxF

— JamesSmithRF (@JamesSmithRF)

Stepping back, the 3m-on-3m growth rate has also increased but at -0.1% remains in negative territory and weak historically. So, while it's good that we've had return to growth in January, this is still an economy that is - at best - flatlining. pic.twitter.com/enf7SjLRxF

— JamesSmithRF (@JamesSmithRF) March 13, 2024

09:54 - We’re now making progress in growing the economy - Chancellor

In his response to the latest figures, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tweeted that "we’re now making progress in growing the economy", adding that is why "we’ve been unable to bring national insurance rates down". 

Meanwhile shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said, after "14 years of economic decline under the Conservatives, Britain is worse off".

The last few years have been tough, but today’s figures show that with inflation more than halved, we’re now making progress in growing the economy. That’s why we’ve been able to bring national insurance rates down by around £900 for the average worker this coming year. t.co/ZtHYfJ43T1

— Jeremy Hunt (@Jeremy_Hunt)

The last few years have been tough, but today’s figures show that with inflation more than halved, we’re now making progress in growing the economy. That’s why we’ve been able to bring national insurance rates down by around £900 for the average worker this coming year. https://t.co/ZtHYfJ43T1

— Jeremy Hunt (@Jeremy_Hunt) March 13, 2024

After fourteen years of economic decline under the Conservatives, Britain is worse off.

Now the Conservatives risk re-running Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-Budget with their £46 billion unfunded tax plan.

We need an election now.

— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP)

After fourteen years of economic decline under the Conservatives, Britain is worse off.

Now the Conservatives risk re-running Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-Budget with their £46 billion unfunded tax plan.

We need an election now.

— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) March 13, 2024

09:48 - Figures add "fuel to the fire" that the recession will be short and mild - Hargreaves Lansdown

Hargreaves Lansdown’s head of money and markets Susannah Streeter, meanwhile, said: "The UK economy snapped back to growth in January, adding fuel to the fire of speculation that the recession will indeed be super-short and ultra-mild. 

"The latest snapshot showed that GDP was estimated to have come in at 0.2%, and while the economy is hardly shooting the lights out in terms of growth, there will be relief that light has emerged at the end of a difficult tunnel for many companies.  

"Shoppers easing purse strings and spending on sales bargains helped lift the retail sector, and there was a burst of activity on building sites, increasing output for construction. Still, ongoing strikes have been weighing on the healthcare and transports sector and it continues to be a dismal time for TV and film production.

"There is hope that with interest rate cuts eyed on a summer horizon, consumers and companies will continue to be more optimistic about the road ahead, and that the recession will be in the rear-view mirror. These figures are unlikely to be a game changer for Bank of England policymakers, with a June date now largely the earliest expected for an interest rate cut."

09:42 - Overall performance "unlikely" to cause a major move in markets - Wealth Club

Reflecting on the figures, Wealth Club investment manager Nicholas Hyett said: “A stronger month for the dominant consumer sector, particularly consumer facing services, together with pick up in construction activity means the UK economy is back in growth in January – albeit modest.

“That was despite some disruption to global supply trains from conflict in the Middle East and Red Sea, and the impact of strikes in healthcare, railways and the Screen Actors Guild – all of which dented overall output.

“The UK’s small manufacturing sector continues to struggle – thanks in large part to a continued slowdown in North Sea oil investment. The Chancellor’s recent decision to extend a windfall tax on UK oil & gas producers is unlikely to do a sector which has been in decline since at least the late 1990s many favours – further discouraging investment in what is a mature oil field anyway.

“Overall performance is in line with market expectations, so unlikely to cause a major move in markets. But, if the return to growth can be sustained the country should be on course to exit recession in pretty short order – a relief for the government even if the man or woman on the street is unlikely to notice the difference between anaemic growth and mild recession."

09:38 - Still no since of growth in the quarterly figures

Despite this, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in the three months to January when compared to the three months to October. Broken down, services output showed no signs of growth, while production and construction output fell - declining by 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. 

09:33 - 0.2% jump in GDP in January

Overall, the UK economy is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in January, following the 0.1% fall reported in December, according to the Office for National Statistics. This overall in increase was primarily driven by a 0.2% jump in services output.

Construction output also rose during the month - going up by 1.1% after a fall of 0.5% in December. This more than offset production output, which fell by 0.2% falling a growth of 0.6% in December. 

09:30 - UK economy grows in first month of 2024

Good morning everyone, and welcome to our live blog - here we’ll bring you the latest news and opinion as we find out why the UK economy grew in January.