Mortgage approvals could decline 11% by end of 2023

The news follows recent positivity in the market, with 54, 662 mortgages approved in June this year -- a 7% increase on the previous month, and a consecutive monthly rise. Current mortgage approvals levels are also 37% above the market low of 39,825 seen in January of this year.

Historic mortgage data from the Bank of England also suggests that short term, those seeking a mortgage at the end of 2023 are expected to see an uplift in activity and total mortgage approvals could hit 377,927 by December – a 30% increase on the first half of the year.

This would suggest a return to the highs before last September’s mini budget rocked the boat. However, only 291, 568 mortgages were approved during the first six months of 2023, 29% less than the 410,244 in 2022 and total annual mortgage approvals are estimated to sit at 669,550 by the year’s end.

CEO of Octane Capital, Jonathan Samuels, commented, “The upward trajectory of interest rates and the resulting reduction in buyer activity are expected to see total mortgage approval levels dip for a second consecutive year in 2023.”

Samuels said the data suggests the worst is behind us, adding "we are now starting to move away from the market lows seen earlier this year, with positive growth expected to materialise over the remaining six months."

"While this short-term positivity won’t be enough to bring about an annual increase in total mortgage approvals, it does set a very firm foundation for further positive growth in 2024.”