Homes could face power cuts under “worst case scenario” projections

It did say this “extreme scenario” would be unlikely, but explained interruptions would be possible if the energy crisis in Europe escalated to such an extent that there would be insufficient gas supplies in Britain. 

According to the firm’s Winter Outlook Report, its central “Base Case scenario” suggests there will be “adequate margins” of energy supply throughout the winter. However, it does expect there to be days when it will “need utilise many of the tools” in its “operational toolkit”, including the use of system notices. 

If power cuts were to occur, customers would be warned in advance and would likely take place at peak times - either in the morning or between 4pm and 7pm. They would also be rotated so that not all areas of the country were affected at the same time. 

Fintan Slye - the executive director of the National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) - said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created “unprecedented turmoil and volatility in the energy markets in Europe and beyond”, which prompted them to look at further scenarios than just its base case.   

He also said it is “highly likely” the wholesale price of energy will remain very high throughout the winter. 

Responding to the National Grid’s Winter Outlook Report, a Ofgem spokesperson said: “We have one of the most reliable energy systems in the world and we are in a favourable position. 

“However, it is incumbent on a responsible and prudent energy sector to ensure the right contingency measures are in place, which is why we are working with the government, National Grid and key partners to protect consumers, so that Great Britain is fully prepared for any challenges this winter.”

Due to the uncertainty and risks associated with the current geopolitical situation, it’s developed a range of new tools. This includes publishing an early view of conditions over the winter to help the market understand risks and introducing a “Demand Flexibility Service” to incentivise customers to reduce consumption at periods when margins are tight. 

The ESO has also signed three contracts with EDF, DRAX and Uniper to keep additional coal-fired power generators on standby in case they’re needed. 

Responding to this, trade body Energy UK’s deputy director Charles Wood said, with these measures in place, the energy system should “cope with the considerable challenges” it will face this winter. 

He added: “But prices will remain high and this again underlines the importance of rapidly expanding our own sources of clean domestic power, and ensuring that our buildings are as energy efficient as possible.”